Sentiense / Horizons
When might AGI arrive? It depends what you assume.
Fifteen levers, from compute and algorithms to safety research and regulation, move the dates. An illustrative model for arguing about assumptions, not a forecast.
The baseline follows the faster end of published views; serious estimates range from the next few years to several decades. The levers add up independently, although in reality they move together.
Part of the Singularity predictor study.